would your' watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. the headlines today. europe fails to build on equity gains in asia. strong trade data. it's helping to boost equity markets. kovich, you're next. they topple the statute of lennon. congress will hustle this week to rush through several key pieces of legislation. the top item, the first budget deal in two years. and unrest also seen across

egypt. the reinstatement of the former president. we'll hear exclusively from the foreign minister about rebuilding the country with the help of international aid. >> that support has to be strategically used. it gives you a reason. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. welcome to the first "worldwide exchange" of the week. we're about an hour and a minute into the trading session here in europe. we are weighted to the up side, 6 to 3. decliners outpace the gainers. the unemployment number last week which exacerbated thoughts we may get some tapering possibly as early as this month. it has not put off risk

appetite. along with the chinese better export data and inflation data, maybe the global economy is doing better. therefore, risk assets have started to rise somewhat. let's break that down for you in terms of individual sectors. the ftse down. flat this morning. the xetra dax is up .4. the ftse is up around half of 1%. one interesting picture as far as commodities are concerned today. spot gold, 1230 is where we stand. it's down 27% this year. managed to stay fairly flat post the jobs number. on the other hand, copper is down. it's really the tapering talk outweighing the better chinese data. brent holding 111.96. on the bond market, treasuries haven't done too badly today. 2.85% in europe. 2.89%.

there is a sense fairly comfortable we might get some tapering. euro dollar up to 137.68. it was at 137.16. you're not far away from the six-month high we hit last week of 103.38. chinese data and sterling, 163.66 just below the six-week number we hit last week. that's where we trend right now. in europe sixuan joins us. >> thank you, ross. happy monday. asian markets gained traction. china markets ended just

marginally higher ahead of this week's next batch of data including incompetent vestment, factory outputs, retail sales and the china deposits added some pressure. up over 1%. environmental related stocks surged as toxic smog has engulfed shanghai over the past few days raising hopes of more supportive green policies. over in japan, the nikkei jumped 2.3% to a five-year high. experts in machinery high. meanwhile, south korea's kospi added 1% with technology shares lending support on higher d-ram chip prices. australia's insurers plunged

after having a plunge. the financials also sold off. amp down by 2.3% and westpac lower by 1.33%. >> sixuan, catch you later. coming up on today's show, the future of fuel. they'll look at their policy on growing crops for biofuel. american airlines and u.s. airways have moved closer to their megamerger. tech giants unite. they're calling for major changes in u.s. government surveillance. do they have their own questions to answer when it comes to data. plus, it's another race against the clock for u.s. congress. they're trying to agree on a

budget deal before christmas. take a look at what's at stake amidst a talk of a truce. the european commission has told ukraine's president that a political solution is needed after hundreds of thousands of demonstrators protested against his government for the second weekend in a row. it's a subject of discussion. julia is in brussels. jules, it was a great dismay when the ukraine pulled back from signs the e.u. trade deal. what are the hopes now? >> reporter: it's interesting, isn't it? the protests were fueled by the suggestion that the ukrainian president had signed a custom union deal with russia at the end of last week. both sides right know have said that that's not happening. from the european side they've said that the door is still open as far as future trade talks and association agreement with the

ukraine is concerned. a number of meps were in spain speaking to members of the opposition. they're calling for him to resign. it's difficult to see how we can reach a negotiation at this. the president stepped in and wants a peaceful and political agreement. they're trying to sort through and work out how we can reach an agreement. from the meps, the european parliament believes that 67% wants to see closer ties with the eu. it was interesting. there was an opinion survey done last week by the international foundation of electrosystems. 37% of the system wants to see closer ties with the eu. 37% wants to see a closer tie with russia. even at the basic level for the

population is difficult to say which way the ukraine will move from here. i think from the eu perspective, a bit of debate and discussion about what more we can do. certainly the criticism from the ukrainians is that the eu's focus has been on maintaining relations with china and the middle east rather than pulling in other countries like the ukraine to the eu and breaking energy ties with russia in particular. i'll pose the question to olli rehn. >> apparently he wants to run for parliament. >> maybe i'll be asking him that, too. >> yes, i think you should. thank you, jules, for now out of brussels. pay no attention to china. exports surged to a near five-year high. their imports were a little

underwhelming. inflation will give beijing more financial forms. it could rise if interest rates rose next year. at the same time they're setting a record midpoint for the second straight day. we have the chief china economist at rbs and joins us now. louis, thank you very much, indeed, for joining us. just oftn the trade data. is there any discussion here that the strong figures have been disguised by hot money in flows? >> i think that that has not really been the case in november of this year because we had a huge bout of that disguising of capital influx. that was associated with where things and the numbers showed up with regard to the chinese exports to hong kong. this time around a lot of the strength came actually from chinese exports to the u.s. and europe and that tends to be

less -- it is much lesseesy to manipulate that data for companies. so i don't think the disguising was the major factor. what was the major factor, 12 months ago in november of 2012 the base was very low. the export numbers, 12.7%, if you look at it month on month, then the pace is much less impressive. >> yeah, certainly the exports rising suggests there's some stability in the global activity. the trade cycle gaining momentum. what is the softer than normal export numbers say? >> sorry, the import number. >> yes, i do think that is something we need to start looking at. one month be is a bit too short to really start to draw conclusions. if these imports remain weak in the coming months, that may be the mon tearing tightening that

they are conducting in beijing, that's something to watch in the coming weeks. >> at the same time, inflation was slowly expected. annual rate of cpi, 3.2%. is that getting weaker? >> yeah. i think inflation is not really an issue. we have a little bit of food increases in the fall of this year that has been petering out. looking at commodity prices globally, we are not worried at all about inflation. what is an issue for the pdc is housing increases. those have been faster. even on that front the month-on-month increases on housing prices are not any more fast as they used to be. the bbc has lots of issues to deal with. i would say inflation and housing prices probably are not any more as big as they used to. >> are they going to maintain a

tightening vice on liquidity if i can put it like that? >> i think as long as they think the economy is okay, they will do that. there will be an appetite and mandate. if we were to see worries about the growth outlook, i think then they may actually lose a bit of that appetite for a tightening. we are relatively optimistic. >> the reforms are getting omnipotent. do you go along with that feel? >> to be honest, not really. i think most of the reforms, they stand a good chance of actually getting through or having an impact in 2014. i think on balance, neutral, even a bit positive. the reforms that seem to have the best scope for actually making good progress are on

financial liberalization, increasing the opportunities for private capital. i think those kinds of reforms are probably slightly good for growth rather than bad for growth in my view. >> all right. good to see you. thanks so much, indeed, for joining us. have a good week. we'll take a short break. still to come, just a week after egypt's new constitution was drawn up, we'll speak about investment and aid. see you in a few minutes. hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy? yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

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>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange." u.s. defense secretary has thrown his support behind the egyptian interim government's roadmap which came into effect with the toppling of mohammed morsi in july. he met with people over the weekend to discuss u.s./egyptian relations following a suspension of u.s. aid to the country a couple of months ago. hadley has been speaking with the egyptian finance minister as well and joins us from dubai. hi, hadley. >> hey, ross. it's interesting because the secretary of defense may have turned his support behind the interim government. that's yet to translate into the

re-establishment of aid, for example, nor has it translated into any investment into egypt, at least in the last couple of months. you saw international investors skeptical of investing in egypt during the morsi government. there was a lot of skepticism an uncertainty. you still have that same kind of uncertainty with the interim government as well. where are they looking? they're looking elsewhere. they're looking to russia. lavrov was visiting russia. there were millions of dollars of investment deals as well as weapons. the gcc countries have contributed 15 to $20 billion. i asked the foreign minister, what's it going to take to get the egyptian government back on track? >> the support from the arab world and the gulf states is highly appreciated. it responds strategically to a crisis situation because of the fact that the economy is so still.

and a lot of factories are producing at lower levels. so we have a huge revenue shortage and a huge surplus and expenses. some of them came in with support. that support has to be strategically used. it gives you a reason but it's not money down the drain. so it should buy us some time to develop and reenergize our own economy. if we do that, then you will see growth very quickly. >> what more are you looking for from the private sector? >> investment, investment, investment, investment. i say this i'm serious.

56%. over 60%. that provides you a huge productive source for a generation to compete. it also provides you huge retail demand for whatever you produce. if i was an investor -- let me add to that. frankly, the prices of business entities is quite low in egypt. so if i was an investor, i would buy up whatever i could buy up. look at it as an incompetent vestment, not a good trade. this is not going to give dividends in six months. playing the stock market in egypt today would be very, very risky. it's a small stock market affected by yesterday's demonstration, tomorrow's announcement. you never know what's going to hit you if you're looking for an investment where you're looking

for a profit two or three years down the line, tourisism, food stamps, energy, you can't lose. >> how does a person measure stability when they're going to doe employ their capital? would you say what's happening in egypt is on track for referendum in the spring? >> that's exactly what it is. they don't necessarily look for one form of government. they want the stability, what's happening next. i understand why they were not in the market last few times but once we get the constitution adopted hopefully within a month, that will be a clear, solid foundation, okay, this is where we'll constitute the foundation for all of our administration in the future. it will tell you this is where we're going. it may be a little bit to the left than the right, but these are the rules of the game. can't be beyond that.

that's the difference between now and last year. last year we did not have a constitution adopted with different stakeholders participating and, therefore, it wasn't something that we could all rally around. i expect that once the constitution is adopted, i expect it to be adopted, you will see a sharp turn in investment attitudes and in business climate. >> their egyptian minister saying, hey, we are on track for elections in 2014. i want to mention another thing that was going on at this iiss conference i attended in bahrain. foreign ministers from egypt, qatar, the u.s. secretary of defense chuck hagel, they were talking about u.s. realignment, the realignment of the u.s. in the region. what that means for the gcc countries. as they look to shore up countries with trouble like

egypt, the 15 to $20 billion they've invested, they're going to look to broaden their scope in terms of who they're going to be investing in and trying to make sure the gcc is a strong force in the region. >> we'll see what that does for investment attitudes. for now, hadley, thank you so much indeed for that. we'll bring our attention to bio fuels. it could be set to rise after the eu canceled a vote. in october they called for these types of bio fuels to be restricted because of concerns it could lead to food shortages. joining us is kevin mckinney. thanks for joining us. big difference of opinion between the european council and the european commission. why? >> the three original objectives for bio fuels, promoting employment, energy savings and

security can i, the lash can energy changes exists only in the context of employment in the jurisdiction itself. that was the primary driver. >> the european commission on the other hand -- >> the european commission from october of 2012 wished to u-turn europe policy on bio fuels and to cap it at its current usage until the end of the decade. current usage is 15 million tons, 12 million tons of biodiesel, 3 million tons offette that nof ette thanol ethanol. >> what is the impact of that going to be. >> on? >> on prices and on agriculture, food. >> so there are many people, many european parliamentarians, commission officials who can't get past the using fuel crops for fuel has got to have negative impacts. the u.n. estimates 815 million

people suffering from under nourishment. what i think the commission are overlooking or don't give enough weight to is undernourishment is tragedies of poverty and politics. the food they cannot afford to buy and nobody is using is used for christmas biscuits or shampoo or fuel is of no consulation to them. secondly, the crops used for fuel were developed and grown in conjunction with the demand for those fuel crops. if the bio fuels industry was decommissioned -- >> we wouldn't necessarily grow anymore crops for food. >> exactly. exactly. a final point would be that bio fuels existence globally on all continents provides a strategic fuel reserve for the world in the event of and possibly with the expectations of future climatic events of greater and greater scale the world will be very pleased that there exists

an industry that the feed stocks are being used and have the correct logistic call capacities and employment capacities globally to redirect. >> what's the -- is there a break-even price for bio fuels or not? is there a -- >> we are entering an era of cost competitiveness. we're probably already there on ooet that noll that would require no government subsidy on vegetable based bio fuels, biodiesel, not quite there yet. with high estimates of energy prices continuing to rise, circa 28% over the coming decades, and agricultural prices to remain soft and possibly get softer. >> why are agricultural prices going to remain soft? >> at higher prices that we now see, the capacity for research and development into agriculture is going to increase. the acreage under plantation has increased and is continuing to increase. the long-term outlook for

agricultural prices will be lower. >> we talk about a long term increase in demand for agricultural products. >> we do. when you have stay tis tickets -- >> you've said energy prices are going to remain higher. >> yeah. when you have statistics like 50% of all food produced is wasted and the reason it's wasted is it's too cheap. small increases in as cultural prices or the -- >> it's not enough. more people would eat it. we've already said in some instances it's too expensive. >> that is a tragedy of poverty in poll tis. any solution will be of benefit. >> from the scp group. at a loss for what to get i don't remember loved ones for

christmas. what about this item. some gold bars. stack's is a rare coins dealer. they've installed an atm that dispenses precious metals. it offers a variety of gold and silver bar and bullion. the atm is updated every 60 seconds. you swipe your credit card and then the machine spits out your precious metal order. it comes in an apparently nice little gift box. this is after gold scraped to five-month lows on friday following the u.s. jobs data. so could atm machines help support the price or is down the only thought for gold. e-mail us worldwide cnbc.com or direct to me @rosswestgate. we'll start at 12 to $1400 an ounce price for gold. what do you think? still to come, is tapering firmly on the table for this month's fed meeting.

we'll see ben bernanke's thoughts. more importantly, how relaxed are the bond markets about it?

>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. these are the headlines

around the globe. european markets have a further weakening of the yen and helps boost the equity market. china's prime minister is participating. kovich is next as they topple a statue of lennon. and congress is going to try to hustle this week to rush through several key pieces of legislation. the top item, the first budget deal in two years. european equities are an hour and a half into the trading week and modestly high. the ftse, that's fallen. 95 points lower. xetra dax is up half of 1%.

bond markets, treasury yields are up 2.9%. treasury yields are lower. 2.5%. trading at 2.91. they're comfortable with the tapering. euro dollars, up to 6 retiring at 16. dollar yen, we hit a fresh six-month high, 103.40. hsbc is reportedly considering floating its u.k. business in a bit to meet new banking rules. according to "the financial times" they would float up to 30% worth an estimated 20 million pounds. the stock hasn't reacted hugely to t. meanwhile, a source close to another asian bank told cnbc

the reports of a riot are untrue. the board is divided whether a capital move is what's needed to shore it up. last week shares came out of pressure after the bank first said the profits could fall for the first time in a decade. the shares remained up moved. joining us is helia. what's going to happen next? someone is going to suggest they're a takeover target. haven't heard that one before. >> we've had a lot of banking stories this morning. actually, one of the reasons is because the capital markets for banks is very hot at the moment. we have a series of umpt k. bank ipos on the horizon. you saw bob diamond looking to raise money for this african bank. you do have things in the pipeline, tsb, you have williams and glen obviously as well.

the people i spoke to close to the board said absolute rubbish. not happening. you're right. they're having difficult -- >> is there a discourse amongst the board or shareholders on what they should be doing. bad year, take it on the chin? >> a healthy board room would always discuss all issues. they have had a difficult year. whether they need to pack up the markets, i doubt. on the hsbc front -- >> what would be the strategic reasoning for that? why would they want to raise the money? >> it's not clear. hsbc is an incredibly well capitalized bank. they don't need the money. would it help in terms of regulation as suggested in the ft, i'm not sure that's true because spinning off the u.k. banks are all looking at getting ready for 2018 making sure that the retail arm is set for it.

are they annoyed that they've paid a disproportionate amount of the u.k. bank leaf vy, 40% o the 2.2 million was the contribution. the levy was against an international business, not the u.k. business. do they think that's unfair? of course they do. whether spinning off the u. u.k. ipo might help. it might,able lists say, make it easier to calculate the value of the u.k. business even though hsbc, traditionally high growth rate. u.k. business is doing very well. there's no read across. 20 billion that we saw quite a high number. >> also the commission, the vickers report named after mr. vickers, i always think of mr. vickers selling machine guns. i've thought he's gunned the banking sector down. >> many of the banks will say that regulators have done that.

>> i know they would. helia for now, thank you very much. congress, meanwhile, is in somewhat of a dash to the finishing line. they're trying to finish work before heading out of town. they're putting the final touches on the budget deal by friday's deadline. the plan doesn't significantly reduce the deficit or, indeed, replace the sequester budget cuts. what does it do? we'll get into that a little bit later. meanwhile, 203 jobs created last month. nonfarm payroll showed the jobless rate down to 7%. the better than expected numbers increase the speculation that the fed might stop. don smith joins us for more. don, very good morning to you. i see on a reuters survey there

are now four that expect december or january, five in january. quite a significant move from the survey in october. what are your own thoughts? why wouldn't you go next week if you were the fed? >> well, exactly. there's still so much uncertainty in the market about will they or won't they. yet the market thinks at some point in the next few months it is inevidenceable. i think why not get the tapering out of the way, the announcement in december, even if it's a preannouncement to take effect from january. i think the bond market reaction to the pretty strong payroll report on friday taught us quite a lot, actually. we didn't see very significant selloff. we did in very short term. the market bounced back quickly. that to me, aside from the fact that yields have moved quite a long way since the whole tapering debate began back in may last year -- sorry, earlier

in the year suggest tapering is. why not go in december. >> below the level where we were at in september when we thought they were going to taper. >> we're a little bit below that level at the moment. justen ba just ten basis points. not that much that's going to make a difference. the markets were strongly expecting a tapering to occur in september. added to which the markets did quite strongly associated tapering with fed tightening. policy tightening with the fed funds target. i think there's a disassociation between the two now. the very fact that the fed pulled back from tapering in september has been quitence the lot of fed talk about the worries about higher bond yields. i think that message has gone through. plus, if we did get a tapering announcement in december, alongside of that the fed would strengthen the guidance and

trying to convince them on a tightening of the feds fund policy market. >> they went out of the way to hammer home that message in the last few months, don. are we saying that we don't have to be quite so binary then? if they scale back the treasuries and not mortgage backed securities, do we have to be careful? >> i think that will to a lesser extent. the bigger question is by how much they initially scale back. i think there's a strong expectation that they'll get the treasuries first. i think the figure the market's playing around with is around 10 billion. i can't see them tapering initially in any case by any more than 10 billion. if we do for some reason or other get tapering -- initial tapering significantly larger than that, then the game changes. then they could possibly be quite a significant market reaction. i think one problem for the fed is that the longer they delay this decision, we move into the

two issues which occur, one is the credibility increasingly becomes undermined as the economy strengthens and the unemployment rate continues. that potentially is quite a significant issue for them as is the fact that the longer they delay, the more likely the eventual policy tightening, tapering, increase in the fed funds target will be more aggressive. i think that's something that will come to the floor. >> yeah. just the final one, don. it's going to be much lighter volumes by the end of next week. how will that potentially impact reaction? >> yeah, that's a risk, of course, in the lighter markets volatility does increase. that would be a risk were it not for the fact that i really do believe that someone else in the tapering would not shut for the market. must be preparing for this announcement for a long time. i think that is one significant mitigating factor. i think if they get the tapering

done before year end and we can move into next year with a fresh sheet, the markets fully understanding -- not clearly understanding fed policy going forward. >> good. let's get it out of the way then. don smith joining us. now japan's economic growth shifted into a lower gear in the third quarter. we have more from tokyo. hi, mikkekei. >> hi, ross. the july growth stood at an annualized 1.1%. down from an initial 1.9%. it underscores the affect of abenomics that were rolled out this year. some are more optimistic. when the numbers are rolled out, it could be a signal that manufacturers are speeding up their manufacturing process to

meet a boost ahead of the sales tax hike next april. however, other figures out today weren't encouraging either. japan's current cut showed a surprise $1.2 billion deficit for the month of october. they were up 18% on strong car sales in china and north america. a sharp increase on fuel imports wiped it out. >> thank you. have a good evening. reminder on what's on the agenda in asia, the constitution day holiday. china's november data continues to trickle through with industrial output and fixed asset investment figures. plus, november sales for the big tech firms are also due out. and you heard makika talking about the numbers. ami, thank you for joining us. do you dismiss this downward revision of gdp on the basis

that it was a rise in inventories or slower rise in inventories? >> yeah. it seems the hard thing to do was that. there's also some talks about corporate capex not being as vibrant as some people were hoping for. if you look at the bigger picture, the yen's been weakening over the last year. seeing the impact of the yen in the next two quarters. we'll see much more capital expenditure coming through. the bank loans are improving. if you provide some reform from taxation that would allow tax reforms for corp trait capex. that will be corporate improvement. we're not seeing this as an indicator that the economy is sloek down. >> what will that weaker yen do for invest snmts still a weighting of exporters and will

it keep more spending bizarrely in japan itself? >> yeah. i think obviously the stock market in japan is generally very heavily weighted in exporters and if you see what the corporate japan is doing, especially the exporters, they have been restructuring quite aggressively taking advantage of the weaker yen to actually, you know, restructure some of the nonperforming part of their businesses. i think we're seeing that expanding quite rapidly across corporate japan. i think that you're going to see some of those benefits from the weaker yen being passed on to customers next year as corporate japan goes out there and tech markets share particularly from the koreans where if you look at the yen one rate, the one has been considerably stronger against the japanese unit. that zeroes it down to one of the sectors that we've been

looking at is the auto sector where i think a lot of benefits will come through over the next 12 months. >> who do you like? you have honda and auto car specialists as well. >> yeah. i mean, you know, honda. i think toyota is fine. hon day has obviously got a lot more gearing to the u.s. and also in china. we're seeing chinese auto sales growing at around 100%. the auto parts companies required -- particularly on the chinese growth, they can own the whole chinese unit while the japanese auto companies themselves, they're april joint venture between themselves and the chinese counterpart. you don't see that coming through on the operating level but more on the equity contribution. on an operating profit margin you'll see some of the auto parts companies being the beneficiaries. >> you have the consumption tax

hike coming up. what about financials? >> yeah, i think the -- you know, i think the financials, you know, are very strongly positioned. if you look at the bank borrowings, they've been growing at a rate of 3.6%. the last number today was for november. you see the bankruptcy falling to its lowest level. we're going through what i would consider a generational allocation in japan. it should benefit some of the banks that are positioned for that. some that we trust could be one. if you look at the ipo market as well, very, very healthy. companies like japco, well positioned there. >> good to see you, amir. have a good evening. >> my pleasure. >> bgc securities. we'll take a short break. still to come, the tide prime minister looking for snap elections. we'll get the latest from

bangkok after this. ya know, with new fedex one rate

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>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange." official results from india's state elections have confirmed the resurgence from the main opposition. the bjp is business friendly.

now come fresh gains in india's market. the xetra dax is up. india's ruling parrot have loty four out of five elections. they're suffering from corruption scandals and slowing economic growth. after weeks of intense pressure from mass protests, thailand's prime minister wants the people to decide her fate. she's dissolving parliament to hold elections likely on february the 2nd. this is after opposition lawmakers decided to resign en masse. the move may be too late. over 100,000 people marched on bangkok calling for a new leader. she hasn't decided whether to take part in the new polls. mary is investment strategist on the telephone. thank you very much, indeed, for joining us. was in a surprise that we've now dissolved parliament, we'll have

fresh elections? >> yeah, it is a great big surprise this morning that our prime minister dissolved parliament. this is not the goal from the protesters. they would like to change the -- uproot the protesters and get into the government house right now. >> it is a democratically elected government. if the elections are free, that should work. this period of uncertainty, how will thattism pact investors? >> i think that the investor is wait and see what may come from the protestors from now because the protesters announce the big

thing. another activity from the protesters, he's dealing with the cat taker 60 days from now after general elections. >> yes. >> so that investors wait and see. i think that's the situation with the economy it's weak right now so that the investor is just like the wait and see and what's going on and on the government side. >> and what is the impact like to be on the tourism sector? >> tourism sector, i think that the market price already priced the tension right now.

we think that the situation will be clear. we think the tourism sector will impact slightly and come back to normal level in the first quarter of next year. >> okay. mary, thanks so much, indeed, for joining us. joining us from the securities. right. let's show you where you stand with equities. the u.s. open is slightly mixed. as far as bond markets are concerned, treasury yields, low, 2.58% after being up 2.89% on friday post the jobs report. gilt yields ticking higher.

currency markets, european dollars. second one down, 137.50. dollar yen is at 103.03. last month we hit a six-month high of 130.08. sterling dollar below the two month high. the greek prime minister haled an historic day after the nation's parliament passed the 2014 budget. the spends plan which was pass by by 153% while forecasting a 6.6% growth rate. it was the first decisive step since exiting the bailout.

at the same time the central bank stands ready to take further action to combat the slow down in inflation. speaking to the italian newspaper the head of the bank said the ecb has other tools to stop unwanted collateral effects chblts. if you're at a loss of what to get your loved ones for christmas, how about gold bars. stack's has started up an atm that dispenses gold bars and precious metals. the atm is updated every 60 seconds based on current market prices. all you have to do is swap a credit card and the machine spits ought your gift box. johnny said i doubt if

retail investors have been scared away. he says small buying into holidays is nothing significant. chinese demand has been very strong. it's upsetting to be selling from the ets. let us know what you think. get in touch with us. e-mail us worldwide@cnbc@paul westgate. we have that atm at least a year ago when that was announced as well. a group of major use tech companies are calling on president obama and congress to impose strict limits of surveillance. google, yahoo, facebook and twitter have written a letter. they're calling for an end to what they call mass collection of youth's information, e-mail, contact lists and others.

we'll talk about this in the second hour. seceberus capital is bringing in an investor for other sellers. they make the bushmaster weapon used in connecticut. they've been trying to sell the business for the last year. take a short break. still to come. german elections. protests in the west. politics dominating 2013. the next one says it will be a bit risky. here to stay.

you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross west gatd. your headlines, europe fails to build on asia. a weakening on the yen.

>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. hello. warm welcome to you. if you've just joined us state side, welcome to the start of your global trading week here on cnbc. we snapped eight weeks of gains last week in the u.s. equity markets. we finished strong on friday. the dow up and the s&p up. we saw the unemployment rate down to a five year low. stronger data today on china. people decided if we git tapering in december, it's not a biggie. the global economy is fairing better. that's the focus we have right now. futures suggest around 12 points above fair value for the dow. the nasdaq 6.5% above fair value. the s&p 500 is just over 2

points above fair value. the ftse global 300 has been up during the session, not by much, 9 points. slightly stronger in asia than we have been here where it's been mixed. ftse 100 down 1.5%. it is flat at the moment. xetra dax down 1/3. down .2. the ftse 100 may be coming up .4%. commodities mixed. gold down to five-month lows immediately after the jobs number. it's 27% this year currently up to 12.29. copper is weaker. the tapering out weighing the chinese data. exports stronger and cpi weaker than we thought. good news out of china and brent steady at 187. nymex at 181. bond yields are concerned, yeemds and ten-year treasuries are a little bit lower.

2.85%. interesting move from friday. we saw them 2.89% suggest treasury markets fairly comfortable right now with what may happen with the fed if they do go in. the december number, up 100 bases points. on the currency markets, risk on euro dollar, up to 137.48. a six-week high. 137.18. dollar yen back over 183. not far away from the six-month high we hit. 164 against the dollar as well. that's what's trading here in europe two hours into the session. what about the first day's trade. sixuan rejoins us with the details. sixuan. >> thanks to china's much stronger trade data, the china markets ended marginally higher

ahead of next week's batch of data. money supply and loan growth. the shanghai index added a touch with banks coming under pressure after the composites four weeks of gains. the schenn den added 1%. environmental products surged as toxic smog engulfed the region. in japan the nikkei jumped 3 poi -2.3% yahoo in japan soared. the kospi had higher dran prices. australia lacked lower. australia's qb insurance plunged over 22% after issuing a warning

for 2013 citing a sh linking profit margin. this came as a surprise. the rising u.s. bond yield should have favored the company. there are financial stocks broadly weaker. amp down by 2 point be point 3% and westpac lower by 1.3%. ross. >> thanks for that, sixuan. that's the latest over in asia. now we have a little bit of data out from greece. the consumer inflation down 2.9% on the year versus the contraction of 2% in october. this is the greek prime minister hailing this an historic day. we thought it would be a return to economic growth. how is that going down in brussels? jules, how will this play into greece exiting at some point in the future the bailout program? >> well, it's a hugely important

point, ross. not just because they managed to agree but they still haven't gotten european commission or imf signoff. we're still battling over signoff gaps. so to agree this budget is as positive step, yes, talking about seeing growth of 0.6%. i think backing the european commission, what they're going to say about the fact that a budget is consigned that they haven't signed up. there ease certainly optimism and a sense of assertiveness from the greeks that they can move forward. they've registered a primary surplus. they hope we can get some bailout money from the troika. we heard from the european commission saying that it's totally unrealistic. actually an agreement will come in early january. there's still a huge mismatch between the two parties.

there was also apparently an e-mail sent by the imf last week that suggested that of the 135 different commitments that greece needs to agree, they've only managed to do 6 of those. while there's some suggestion out there i think that greece is trying to be more assertive, on putting their best foot forward, i think you can make an argument that what they've done in this budget is the best they feel they can do. it will be interesting to get the commission's take later on today. i'll be speaking to olli ollie rennon. now, ross, back to you. >> and his desire to -- we spoke earlier, his desire to move to europe. why do you think he wants to move to the european parliament? >> i think he warchts to consider he has a role to start

there. the austerity versus growth debate. they have an issue with seeing him at the head of the commission. we'll see. >> yeah, we'll see what he says. talk to you later. thank you. that's the latest from brussels. congress is in a dash to the finish line trying to get several key pieces of legislation before heading out of town. house and senate negotiators are putting the final touches on the budget deal by friday's deadline. the plan on the discussion doesn't significantly reduce the deficit. reports say it's still in effect for a cease fire. it could be another costly deal. we'll speak about it at 10:40. on the agenda state side, there's no economic data today. a trio of officials speak.

just a few earnings reports, clothing maker pva and pet toys and veil resorvail resorts. the european commission has told the president that change is needed. tina is with us for the rest of the program today. we are very fortunate, indeed. nice to see you. >> nice to see you. >> the reason we have this thing with ukraine, a few weeks ago they expected months of trade agreements. at the last month the president said he wasn't going to sign.

now we've got protests and they're tearing down the statue of lennon. where does this end? >> a lot of this depends on the action they take. we've seen in thailand where the government called on parliament and asked for new elections. that's a way to reduce the violence. calling for early elections is risk risky. >> would it be parliamentary or presidential? >> it's very unlikely. he won't want to go to the poles. it's very unlikely he'll win. >> you say that. there is a very large part of the country that supports him. there's a large part of the country that feels very much it's allegiances with russia.

>> exactly my point. this is a divided society and while he could be re-elected and support is strong in the industrial heartland, the russians speaking part of the country, he's facing a significant challenge. it's before the 2004 orange revolution also featured some of the same players. these positions haven't been resolved. if anything, they may have gotten worse and this decision not to sign the e.u. agreement has galvanized the west. . >> why is it so strorng? >> it's gas in a word. also, there are other sort of commercial and trade pressures that moscow has brought to bear. we've seen this in belarus. russia wants communications with satellite states and has been

concerned in what it sees by encirclement on its borders hence what many believe were pressure tactics. >> all right. tina, stay there. more to come from you. also, more to come here as well. a trillion dollars of global trade. that's the estimated boost from the wto's weekend deal. is that realistic. who's going to benefit when we come back. ♪

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here are the headlines today. a bipartisan budget deal for the u.s. is expected to be unveiled by congress this week. positive chinese growth is helping to cheer global markets. protests continue in thailand despite the prime minister's call for a snap election. right. we have the latest snapshot of growth in greece or lack of it, rather. they have agreed to a budget deal over the weekend. unadjusted third quarter gdp, a contracted 3% year on year. it was 3% in the previous flash estimate as well. so that's confirmation that greek economy contracting 3% over the course of a year. mean while, an historic deal is

being reached by the world trade organization in bali. an agreement could be worth $1 trillion to trade. it marks the first time since the organization has agreed on the terms. measures include common custom standards to ease business across borders and improved access for goods sold by developing nations. tina fordham is still with us. how important do you think this is? >> well, i think it's important for the wto because it's sort of breathed life back into an organization that has struggled. >> been floundering? >> yes. the dohar round was getting nowhere. it follows the patterns of other deals we've seen elsewhere, even u.s. congress, right, minimalist across the board getting everybody involved. now we can say that there has been a breakthrough wto agreement. put into the context of other diplomatic agreements, i think it's notable. >> the interesting thing is what the future is. we are increasingly seeing

bilateral area deals. the e.u. and the u.s. are negotiating. cameron was in beijing saying we want a china e.u.d. we want pan asia deals. that seems to be, you know, we've gotten after, we've gotten a latin american deal. we have big blocks. see where we go. >> right. in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, there was a lot of concern about globalization and backlash to globalization. this is the way the wto is asserting itself and kind of reclaiming that territory and saying world trade deals are possible albeit less comprehensive than we might have wished for in years past. >> yes. it's getting that overall global deals. will that give way to localized area deals? >> the temptation is always going to be there to cut side deals, right? i think the bilateral agreements retain their compelling sort of power for the country's involved. we have seen though that even in

the case of allies like the european union and the u.s. in the aftermath of the spying scandal, it's not so easy to ink the deals and they take time. >> what is the use of this, clearly the wto, i'm thinking of what deals we get. we sort of dismiss the g 8 and we have the g 20. i'm not sure anything ever really comes out of these sort of meetings. >> and markets -- financial markets participants are typically skeptical of diplomacy and government institutions. the g 20 will be trumpeted by those to counter that. p 5 plus 1 and the deal with iran a deal of international cooperation. the wto should look at high unemployment around the world. president obama didn't come into

the office as a free trader but he has pursued these bilateral and regional trade agreements in part because they're an easy way to show that they're working on unemployment concerns. tina, thank you. we'll hear exclusively from the country's foreign minister of egypt.

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u.s. defense secretary has thrown his support behind the egyptian interim government's roadmap which came into effect with the toppling of the former president, mohammed morsi. chuck hagel met over the weekend to discuss u.s. egyptian relations. hadley spoke exclusively to the foreign minister. she asked if billions of dollars in aid would help egypt get back on its feet? >> the support from the arab world and gulf states is highly appreciated. it responds to a crisis situation because of the fact that the economy is weak and a lot of the factories are producing at lower levels or not

producing at all so we have a huge revenue shortage and a huge surplus in expenses and the gulf states -- arab gulf states, some of them came in with support. that support has to be strategically used. it gives you a breather but it's not money down the drain. you can't put money down the drain. so it should buy us enough time to implement policies and develop and reenergize our own account. if we do that, then you will see egyptian growth moving very quickly. >> what more are you looking for from the private sector? >> investment, investment, investment and investment. i say this and i'm serious. 56% are 25 years. over 60%. that provides you a huge productive force for a

generation. it also provides you huge retail demand for whatever you produce. if i was an investor -- let me add to that. frankly, the prices of business entities is quite low in asia so if i was an investor, i would buy up whatever i can buy up. look at it as an invest am, not a quick trade. it's not about playing the stock market. playing the stock market today in egypt would be very, very risky because it's a small stock market and it's ineffective by yesterday's demonstration and today's announcement. if you're looking for an investment where you're looking for a profit in two or three years down the line, tourism, stood stuffs, energy, you can't

lose. >> investors look for some measure of stability when looking to deploy their capital. would you say what's happening in egypt is on track for a referendum and elections in the spring? >> that's exactly what investors look for. they don't necessarily look for one form of government. they want them to lead the future, stability. what's happening next. i understand why they were not in the market the last three or four months, but once we get the constitution adopted hopefully in a month, that will be a clear, solid foundation of, okay, this is what will constitute the foundation for all of our legislation. it will tell you this is where we're going t. may be a little bit to the left, a little bit to the right but these are the rules of the game. that's the big difference between now and last year. last year we did not have a constitution adopted with

different stakeholders participating and, therefore, it wasn't something that we would all rally around. i expect that once theadopted, expect it to be adopted, you will see a sharp turn in investment attitudes and in business confidence. >> continue talking to hadley. what's on the agenda state side today. there's no economic data. will be reacting to friday. we have a trio of fed officials which will be of interest. plenty more predicting that we'll get a december taper. we have jeffrey lacker and james bullard and richard fisher. just a few earnings reports. pvh, parts retailer pep boys and the ski resort operator vail resorts. made me think it's time to go skiing. u.s. futures right now, they

are predicting a slightly higher start. we snapped eight weeks of gains last week for the s&p and the dow. a strong finish on friday, the dow up 1.2%. the s&p up 1.8%. the dow is above 5 points. the nasdaq six points above fair value. it was just about positive on friday. still to come, cleared for takeoff. american airlines and u.s. airways move one step closer to their megamerger. we'll look at what's soet to become the world's biggest carrier. hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy? yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

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you're next, that's what protesters say. as they topple statutes of soviets. the ukraines ties with russia.

>> announcer: you're watching worldwide exchange bringing you business news from around the globe. very good morning to you if you've just joined us state side. we've snapped eight weeks of gains last week for u.s. equities. a strong finish on friday after that employment report. there's greater expectation that the fed may start tapering its bond purchases next week but there's also indications today in trading that we might be comfortable with that. the s&p 500 is just currently over a point above fair value. the nasdaq and the dow is currently on fair value. so we have just changed in the last few moments but the market is 1u7.2, 1.1% respectively. the fts si cnbc global 300 is up .2%. it was down 1.5%.

. .2%. the xetra dax. the cac quarante and maybe it was up .4%. that's where we stand in european trade. what are we to do this week if you're an investor. here's a recap of some of the guests we've already had on cnbc today. >> the issue that italy has, if we start seeing inflation continue to start to fall, head into deflation. italy, spain, portugal. a world in which they have falling nominal gdp is a very unstable world and i think that's what the ecb needs to worry about. i think the ecb will worry about that and cutting rates next year which will take the euro down. that isn't today's story. you don't sell the euro on something that will happen in a few months' time. >> as you get nearer to the fmc meeting, i think you will see another push higher in terms of

yield because of that apprehension going into 2014. i think the story for 2014 is the fed tapering will actually arrive. the market will be sort of balanced with some measure by the fed to try to calm the ideas of tightening but tapering does matter. i think that does boost the dollar. it does sort of prush treush tr yields and that's going to be the dominant theme. >> if you take a sector like mining, yes, look at the minors under pressure. there are still some very interesting plays in this area. if you take michelin, for example, 35, 40% of its profits coming from selling mining ties. it's about operations. u.s. airways and american airlines will close their near $18 billion merger before the

opening of trading today. the new company will be called american and it will be based in dallas. last month the carriers resolved an antitrust case with the justice department. on saturday the u.s. supreme courts justice ruth bader ginsburg denied an attempt to block the deal. joining us is ray nidel with nexa capital. ray, thank you for joining us nice and early. is that it now? have we done with the massive restructuring of u.s. air lines? are we still going to have another decade of it? >> we're pretty much set. there's a fourth big carrier,

southwest. there are four or five niche carriers. >> the likes of jetblue down the east coast, yes? >> jetblue and alaska airlines and hawaiian which serve certain markets and do offer some competition to the big carriers. the industry is more rationalized where it will benefit the consumer by having a bigger product to choose from from each airline t. will be a benefit to the airlines and investors where they can get an adequate return. >> it will be an across the board business over the next decades. the airlines have been in and out of chapter 11. one has to wonder if this was an investable business. a quasi public service? >> right. i agree with james cramer. it's a consumer variable industry. it will be subject to the economic business cycle. the thing is it should be a real industry for investors to think about buying long term, not just

trading. >> yeah. where is the competition now going to come from? >> well, domestically you have more than enough competition with nine carriers. southwest airlines continues to expand. internationally you have competition remaining from some of the international carriers. so it's still a pretty competitive business. it now will be manageable for the airlines to get a good return on their capital. >> as far as alliances are concerned, ba and america, they've been looking whether they could get closer ties. is an international merger still some way off the charts? >> well, basically it's far off. i don't think you'll see any changes in foreign ownership for the foreseeable future. they'll work together with the partnerships where they get some of the benefits but i don't think you'll see any out and out

ties. >> what about how they compete with international routes? >> they do have the partnerships where the u.s. carriers are hooked up with big international carriers in the pacific and the atlantic. the big competition for the partnerships going forward are the new rapidly growing airlines out of the middle east. they'll offer them a lot of competition. they have the capital to incompetent vest in new equipment. they'll be aggressive in trying to fill their hubs. that's where the big international competition is going to come from in the future. >> does it help to be part of the one world, the star alliance, those alliances? are they working? >> yeah, the alliances are working very well. they're getting a lot of the benefits of mergers without entailing the risks of mergers. if you're an american airlines

customer you can go almost anywhere in the world with the alliance that they're on. that's the same for the other two alliances. alliances rsz a good way for them penetrate worldwide at minimum cost. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. the new american airlines doug parker will be on "squawk box" at 8:00 eastern in a first on cnbc interview. some of the other stories we're following, jpmorgan failed to hire employees from chinese families. there's no indication that they were aware of the hiring practice. they're probing whether jpmorgan and others violated the foreign hiring act. the u.s. attorney's office is looking to why jpmorgan didn't file a suspicious activity report before five years ago.

it may have a deferred agreement. risk capital has a government group freedom group. it comes less than a week before the one year anniversary of the shooting at sandy hook elementary which 2k0i8d students and six teachers. freedom makes the bushmaster rifle. finally to come, congress heads into the last few weeks trying to get a budget deal. we'll handicap something actually getting done next. [ male announcer ] how can power consumption in china, impact wool exports from new zealand,

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november. is there anything that will get the world to continue to move higher. market insight as well from cnbc.

all right. still with us is tina fordham. tina, before we get into things, the outlook for geo politics in 2014. clearly we have now iran talking to the west. we've had issues this year with the middle east but what do you think will be the hot spot next year? >> well, i guess i would say we should not think so much in terms of hot spots. i look at the year that we've just experienced and there were some geopolitical dogs that

didn't bark. we didn't have military intervention in syria. we also didn't have a military attack on iran's nuclear facility which has been the sort of long-standing key geopolitical risk. does that mean things are better. has peace broken out around the world? i think what that means is we are living in a world where it's quite difficult to go to war. we're talking about our most popular risk idea for a while. leaders can't get consent to use military force. the by-product is a revival of diplomacy. things can happen next year. in terms of the year ahead, the p 5 plus 1 on iran clock starts ticking in january. verification. all kinds of ways that this could either proceed or fall apart, plus the risk that congress passes new sanctions. >> all right. talk about congress, we're back

in session. the big item on the list is a budget deal or the potential for one. mary thompson is with us from cnbc hq. mary, how are these final days going to pan out? >> well, this is how it's going to play out, ross. as you pointed out, this is the final week of the year that both the house and senate will be in session at the same time. the house goes into recess on friday. they're hopeful that they can repeated reach a budget deal. congress hasn't passed a budget since 2011. the top priority is to avoid another fiscal standoff like the one that resulted in a partial fiscal shutdown. the senate budget committee chair patty murray and paul ryan worked over the weekend. they plan to meet early this week. specific details of the budget deal are still murky. it would set spending levels at $1 trillion over the next few years. it's bringing it up to targets

in place for fiscal 2016. the plan would also partially but not fully repeal the across the board sequester cuts. the deal would do nothing to significantly reduce the deficit. nor does it raise taxes nor reform entitlement programs like medicare and social security. democrats say it's not a deal breaker if it's not done by january. they could target about $65 billion in alternative policies. the spirited bipartisan may exist elsewhere on capitol hill as well. last week lawmakers said they've made progress towards passing the first new five-year farm bill since 2008. they've yet to agree on the most politically sensitive topic though, how much to trim from the u.s. food stamps program. house republicans want to cut spending by 40 billion while

senate democrats have agreed to trim 4 billion. that's what we're watching in washington next week. >> not much of a gap between 40 and 4. thanks for that, mary. joining us for more is morris reid managing director tina fordham is still in the studio. morris, thank you for joining us. are we going to get an agreement this week on something? >> i think so. there's a lot of pressure on congress from the business community as well as the fact that there's mid-term elections next year. there's a lot of pressure. you have two adults, ryan and murray, working together trying to get something done. i think the chances are about a seven out of a ten. >> what about paying for the bill? >> well, you know, paying for the bill is another story altogether. that will be the devil in the details. i don't believe they're going to have a great consensus. i think there may be some push back on the employment extension because the democrats will need that for urban america.

it will get done. it will probably get done this week, a deal. paying for it is another thing. i think the devil is in the details there. well, i agree with morris that the pressure is very strong on congress after the first shutdown in 17 years, but i'm afraid i can't get as optimistic just because the way that i see things, theological divide which is over taxation hasn't been bridged. the pressure is there. these are harder divisions. this is a theme that keeps coming up in our conversation. democrats don't want to cut entitlements. democrats don't want to raise taxes. how are we going to find the savings? with that in mind, my best guess is that we don't have another shutdown. >> how do you avoid the shutdown? >> a continuing resolution that keeps sequestration in place. another short term. we've done it 14 times.

we can fund the government through a continuing resolution. >> morris, is that the back stop there? >> yeah, i'm not for sure it's going to work this time. there is mounting pressure in the business community as my colleague knows. there is the pressure of mid term election as a lead up to the next presidential election and i would say i would read the tea leaves. the way they're getting together on the farm bill is an indication republicans want to play ball a little bit more. those are farm bills. farmers are their constituents. i think there's a con volution of things with the re-election and mid term. the presidential election is very important in this lead up, particularly since the fumble with obama care. the republicans may see an opening and may be a reason for them to try to get some things done. >> so, i mean, you talk about the farm bill. do they have a long way away on how much they want to trim from that? democrats want to trim 4 billion, represent can't want to trim 40 billion. this is from the food stamps

department. yes, they're talking, which is a good thing. there's still a lot of distance. >> well, there's distance on the food stamp program and that's always the case. democrats, remember, those are more -- those are perceived to be more democratic constituents so they will want to do less, particularly in a mid-term election. i think you can get there, come together middle of the road, split the baby. this farm bill is important to republicans. that shows that the republicans are showing a lot more flexibility. they need a win more than the democrats need a win in this mid-term election particularly because they see that they may have the president and the democrats on their heel with obama care. if they can get a farm bill done and then still have the democrats on their heels about the obama care, this could be something that sweeps the senate in their direction. >> tina, just on that point. how much has the experience of obama care damaged the president

and how much has he maybe separated the president from other members of the democratic party? >> i think both parties have taken significant hits in the last couple of months. republicans approval ratings were hurt in the polls over the shut downbut then on the back of that came the debacle over obama care, which is really bad for democrats. the president is polling at a low in his presidency that looks similar to where george w. bush was at this time in his presidency. things are complicated. you know, they say a week is a long time in politics. we've got a year before mid-term elections. as morris has said, both parties are looking for a way to bolster their ratings and to show that they are willing to get things done. i still think this is a pretty unproductive looking congress. >> thanks for that. morris reid joining us. u.s. futures meanwhile are indicated -- >> thanks are morris. >> -- are indicating a flattish start right now. we turned down slightly. the dow is just below fair value. the nasdaq is above fare value.

we snapped eight weeks of gains but a strong finish on friday. joining us, ben, traders.com. are we comfortable with the fact that the fed may taper next week or announce a tapering? >> i think this's a lot of opinions out there in terms of when the fed will start that activity. my personal opinion is that it's not necessarily 100% given that the fed is going to be as trans parent as it seems that they will be. i think there's a lot of information for the market to digest. if you look at the market's activity recently, you have to kind of support the fact that you've got to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. that continues to be the case. there's a lot of talk about when does good news become bad news. for a while the bad news has been good news concerning the qe activity. there's speculation when this

will stop. for the most part this continues to hold levels. we're up to 1800. we did see a nice move on friday, nice wide range trade. the unemployment number came in lower than expected for the rate. the payroll came in higher than expected. this market is kind of speaking to us, if you will. you have to listen. there are people out there that trade opinions and then there's people that trade the market. we've been trading the market and we've been long for a while. we continue to focus on that position. higher highs and higher lows. i don't see anything derailing this market between now and the year. >> which would suggest we're comfortable. it doesn't matter. >> if they taper in december, january, march, what does two or three months make any difference? >> we might as well request it, haven't we? >> well, there's no question that we have priced it in. if you look at the market, you see the acceptance of these upper levels. we'll know when something

changes when trader sentiment or consumer sentiment, they're not convincing. ten handles to the down side in the s&p feels like a number of handles only because we're so familiar with the down side momentum. again, once things shift and we see a shift in sentiment, we'll know it won't be a subtle thing. >> good to see you, ben. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> joining us from the cme. tina, final word from you actually. once we start tapering, whatever shape or form, how much pressure might it put on emerging markets? >> well, emerging markets had quite a lot to worry about. one of the dogs that didn't bark is the balance of payment crisis. going into next year there are bigger question marks the the thing that we're focused on is the elections. we have a state election in india. next year is brazil, turkey, indonesia, south africa. a lot of political and economic

pressure. >> tina fordham. that's it for "worldwide exchange." coming up, "squawk box."

good morning. taper. y.p. morgan's tom lee will tell us if the markets can afford it. from the looks of friday, i would say they can. budget negotiations going down to the wire with a deal set for the end of the week. winter storm dion creates a travel nightmare. snow, ice and rain snarling air traffic and a little slick getting in here. monday, december 9th, 2013. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ ♪

good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kiernen and ross sorkin. the dow and s&p are coming off their first weekly losses in nine weeks. they had the bullish session on friday on the back of a strong november jobs report. the dow futures -- nothing is moving now. let's hold off. as for the market agenda, we'll turn to the fed. there are three fed speakers of note today, bullard, fisher and lacker. they say that the central bank will begin to taper early next year. 62% of forecastors polled will say they'll pull back in the first quarter. they don't expect it to happen this month at this meeting. another 30% believe that the fed wico the fed will be in the m